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A valuable insight into the rapidly changing economy - Rated
When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change
Mohamed El Erian has spent many years involved in the emerging markets and this book gives a very valuable insight into the impact that these markets are having on the financial landscape and how to capitalize on it.
In future the emerging markets will be much more important drivers of the world economy than the US, UK, Europe or Japan.
The book talks about the crisis caused by the undervaluation of risk combined with the under-assessment of the quantity of risk outstanding and the consequential fundamental changes taking place. The sheer complexity of the structure of financial products and the inability of the regulatory system to keep on top of these developments has been a catalyst in the resulting financial chaos as has the advance in technology. Technology has undermined the role of the sell side in price discovery which has caused the sell side to extend their activities into new and unfamiliar areas at greater risk of market accidents.
Derivative based products significantly reduced barriers to entry in a range of markets and the complexity stemmed from the ground upwards. Domestic mortgages are taken as a good example. Gone were the days of plain vanilla fixed or floating loans. Instead a plethora of structures were offered, many so complex that household borrowers didn't understand them.
The author emphasises the importance of interpreting signals and differentiating between what is noise and what are real structural changes. He focuses on China as being the most important contributor to world growth. Emerging economies which have greatly benefited from the US and parts of Europe by sustaining consumer demand way beyond income growth are now building up massive amounts of wealth.
Time and time again the Sovereign Wealth Funds are mentioned.
This book gives us food for thought about how to assess the new financial landscape given that many of the emerging markets have shifted from debtors to creditors and are now extremely important drivers of the world economy. It encourages the reader to keep a close eye on the SWFs and their allocation of capital. It gives us some ideas as to construct an international portfolio. It also talks about changes that will be required in organisations such as the IMF.
